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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.1%
Nathan Young win20.7%
Other2.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the QH Forecasting Community community.

Will Andrew Cuomo win the New York City Mayor's race?

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

10%chance
70% this week

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

≥56result: Yes
1-25result: No
26-45result: No
and 1 other

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

26%chance
12% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel