Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?
Resolved :
No
63 forecasters
3
41 comments
41
Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?
Resolved :
No
68 forecasters
2
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?
Resolved :
No
730 forecasters
30
31 comments
31
Ukraine Conflict
Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?
Resolved :
Yes
24 forecasters
4
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
9.4%
16 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?
7 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
11%
11%
US-China war before 2035?
7%
7%
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US SLCM 2030
Resolved :
Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
10%
10%
US-China war before 2035?
4%
4%
Resolved :
Annulled
1
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox