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Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
2%
285 forecasters
26
81 comments
81
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
60%
428 forecasters
63
159 comments
159
Verity
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
1%
209 forecasters
13
26 comments
26
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?
Resolved :
No
1%
46 forecasters
1
1 comment
1
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?
Resolved :
No
2%
21 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?
Resolved :
No
1%
103 forecasters
3
6 comments
6
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
Resolved :
No
20%
165 forecasters
26
57 comments
57
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?
Resolved :
No
30%
60 forecasters
10
22 comments
22
Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?
Resolved :
No
4%
78 forecasters
11
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
138 forecasters
12
28 comments
28
Nuclear Risk Tournament
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