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Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR?
2040
15%
2030
7%
2025
No
9
16 comments
16
Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?
Resolved :
Yes
70%
169 forecasters
25
26 comments
26
Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons?
Resolved :
Yes
63%
37 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?
Resolved :
Yes
80%
239 forecasters
28
8 comments
8
Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?
Resolved :
No
1%
410 forecasters
24
35 comments
35
Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?
Resolved :
Yes
96%
145 forecasters
11
16 comments
16
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?
Resolved :
No
20%
85 forecasters
12
18 comments
18
Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?
Resolved :
Yes
96%
144 forecasters
7
15 comments
15
Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?
Resolved :
Yes
85%
85 forecasters
4
18 comments
18
When will North Korea have a McDonald's?
Jul 2045
94 forecasters
21
12 comments
12
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