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US Democracy Index

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Winners of the Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

2 2 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

0 comments

27 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Javokhir Sindarov99.9%

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments

11 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

9 comments

37 forecasters

Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?

Clair Obscur: Expedition 3386.5%

Hollow Knight: Silksong5.2%

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach2.1%

Key Factors

1 comment

15 forecasters

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

6 or more47.5%

420.2%

520.2%

3 comments

Will Bangladesh's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina return from exile before the following years?

Before 2026Upcoming

Before 2028Upcoming

Before 2030Upcoming

0 comments

7 forecasters

What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?

Current estimate

4.95 Percentage Points

20 comments

50 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

12%chance

11% this week

Key Factors