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Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?
Deny some entities
35%
Deny ≤99 countries
15%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
7%
4 others
5
3 comments
3
Regulation of AI
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
19%
6
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
41.82%
Anthropic
29.38%
Google DeepMind
23.93%
3 others
9
10 comments
10
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
95%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-11-08
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.67
3
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
1%
12
4 comments
4
AI Safety
Commercial speech recognition to soon be better than human?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
10
8 comments
8
When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?
Resolved :
Oct 2, 2018
39
22 comments
22
AI Demonstrations
Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?
Resolved :
50.1
6
17 comments
17
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