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What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

124 forecasters

41

Low-mass Doppler-detected planet in 2016?

Resolved :No60%

7

by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?

Resolved :No59%

132 forecasters

21

Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments?

Resolved :No32%

10

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

Resolved :No58%

301 forecasters

83

Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come?

Resolved :Yes60%

8

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

Resolved :No40%

141 forecasters

11

AI Technical Benchmarks

What will be the lowest tabulated cost of a teraflop of computing speed in 2018?

Resolved :Ambiguous26.5

5

When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?

15

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

5