Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
How many UN member states will there be in 2070?
198
17 forecasters
9
7 comments
7
Verity
When will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?
2045-11-22
23 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
Verity
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?
Deny some entities
35%
Deny ≤99 countries
12.23%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
7%
4 others
5
3 comments
3
Regulation of AI
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?
Deny some entities
89%
Deny ≤99 countries
85%
Deny ≥100 countries
10%
4 others
3
2 comments
2
Regulation of AI
Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?
Deny some entities
86.7%
Deny ≤99 countries
75%
Deny ≥100 countries
33%
4 others
4
4 comments
4
Regulation of AI
How many UN members will recognize Kosovo at the end of 2025?
102
No
103
No
104 or 105
No
5 others
3
12 comments
12
Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?
15%
28 forecasters
6
4 comments
4