MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?

11

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

130 forecasters

25

How much global warming by 2100?

561 forecasters

97

122 comments122

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

23

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

13

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?

Resolved :Yes52%

176 forecasters

25

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

523 forecasters

47

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

138 forecasters

20

Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?

456 forecasters

57

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

101 forecasters

14