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Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

9

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

7

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

5

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

5

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?

4

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

20

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

23

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Google DeepMind

4