Question Feed | Metaculus

3 comments

Occupation Forecast Pages

5 comments

15 forecasters

828 forecasters

Will Starmer leave office in 2026?

99.5%chance

19.5% this week

Key Factors

news.sky.com:
Politics latest: Scottish Labour leader calls for Keir Starmer to resign - as cabinet back the PM

16 comments

106 forecasters

Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before Sept 2026?

45%chance

8% today

Key Factors

theitem.com:
What to know about the demining and escort mission that US allies want for the Strait of Hormuz - The Sumter Item
cbsnews.com:
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is "safe, secure and pristine." Shipping companies aren't convinced.
Opening for demining delays normal traffic

0 comments

12 forecasters

Before September 1, 2026, will Erdoğan be permitted to run for another term?

4.5%chance

0 comments

7 forecasters

On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in 2027?

55%chance

46 comments

68 forecasters

Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election

Andy Burnham91.8%

Angela Rayner7%

Wes Streeting2%

Keir Starmer0.2%

9 others

17 comments

93 forecasters

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

0.3%chance

11.7% this week

Key Factors

Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Dai Dai's low initial chart position
Major performances at World Cup events

4 comments

68 forecasters

Major Atlantic Hurricanes before Sept 26?

040.2%

141.2%

213.4%

33.9%

4Upcoming

1 other

Key Factors

1 average count By 2026
Pre-September major hurricanes mean and mode over 2016-2025
El Niño suppresses activity (especially early season)
tropical.colostate.edu:
CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting

6 comments

65 forecasters

NYSEARCA: ILS two-day loss >=$0.25 before Sep 2026?

13%chance

3% today

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will Copernicus report July 2026 as the warmest July on record?

55%chance

9 comments

98 forecasters

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Current estimate

169 $

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will the Liberal Party nominate Flávio Bolsonaro before August 15, 2026?

80%chance

3 comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before September 1, 2026?

3%chance

4 comments

77 forecasters

Will the US and India finalise a trade agreement before Aug 2026?

34%chance

Key Factors

China's leverage in supply chains

5 comments

36 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

66.7%chance

0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

26 comments

136 forecasters

US attacks Cuba before 2027?

35%chance

5% this week

Key Factors

Cuba lacks valuable assets to seize
American public opposes wider conflict
Russian intervention in blockade possible

44 comments

129 forecasters

Lowest relative rank of knockout team 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current estimate

44.8

Key Factors

The lowest ranked team qualified in 2/8 last World Cups
New round of 16 allows the third from groups to qualify, very strong change for this question
Historical precedent shows there are surprise teams in every WC, often from the lowest ranked teams

13 comments

67 forecasters

GOP House advantage after 2026 midterms?

Current estimate

-5.62 seats

0 comments

6 forecasters

Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat election?

Alternative for Germany (AfD)50%

Christian Democratic Union (CDU)50%

Occupation Forecast Pages

When will Claude Fable 5 next be publicly accessible?

Respiratory Outlook June Update

Next spot scoring date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index: July 15

Will Starmer leave office in 2026?

Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before Sept 2026?

Before September 1, 2026, will Erdoğan be permitted to run for another term?

On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in 2027?

Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

Major Atlantic Hurricanes before Sept 26?

NYSEARCA: ILS two-day loss >=$0.25 before Sep 2026?

Will Copernicus report July 2026 as the warmest July on record?

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Will the Liberal Party nominate Flávio Bolsonaro before August 15, 2026?

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before September 1, 2026?

Will the US and India finalise a trade agreement before Aug 2026?

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

2026 US Midterms Tracker

US attacks Cuba before 2027?

Lowest relative rank of knockout team 2026 FIFA World Cup?

GOP House advantage after 2026 midterms?

Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat election?

Occupation Forecast Pages

When will Claude Fable 5 next be publicly accessible?

Respiratory Outlook June Update

Next spot scoring date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index: July 15

Will Starmer leave office in 2026?

Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before Sept 2026?

Before September 1, 2026, will Erdoğan be permitted to run for another term?

On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in 2027?

Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

Major Atlantic Hurricanes before Sept 26?

NYSEARCA: ILS two-day loss >=$0.25 before Sep 2026?

Will Copernicus report July 2026 as the warmest July on record?

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Will the Liberal Party nominate Flávio Bolsonaro before August 15, 2026?

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before September 1, 2026?

Will the US and India finalise a trade agreement before Aug 2026?

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

2026 US Midterms Tracker

US attacks Cuba before 2027?

Lowest relative rank of knockout team 2026 FIFA World Cup?

GOP House advantage after 2026 midterms?

Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat election?