MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?

9

Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?

Resolved :No15%

12

Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?

177 forecasters

14

Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?

Resolved :No25%

8

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

123 forecasters

20

Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?

Resolved :No44%

22

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

9

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

10

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

9

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

12