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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
85%
53 forecasters
6
17 comments
17
Regulation of AI
Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
89%
50 forecasters
10
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.13
27 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
10%
58 forecasters
6
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030
7
no comments
0
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
83%
158 forecasters
10
7 comments
7
Effective Institutions Project
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025
Resolved :
Annulled
4
no comments
0