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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%

Microsoft5%

xAI3%

3 comments

13 forecasters

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

In 2026-202744.7%

In 2028-202924.6%

2030 or later21.6%

0 comments

29 forecasters

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

40%chance

20% this week

17 comments

97 forecasters

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

62%chance

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

61 comments

100 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate

23 Apr 2027

condition

11 forecasters

Conditional Cup

559 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

29 May 2027

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

16 forecasters

if yes

if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

65%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%

3 3 comments

16 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100