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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

97 comments

184 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Current estimate

Mar 2032

567 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

27 Nov 2027

Key Factors

10 comments

81 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

22%chance

Key Factors

39 comments

64 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

18 comments

80 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

2%chance

Key Factors

7 comments

34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

2 or 348.9%

0 or 135.5%

4 or 511.4%

71 comments

414 forecasters

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9%chance

13 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

32 forecasters

Five years after AGI, how rich will the richest person in the world be?

Current estimate

>1.5T $

Key Factors