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627 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033
2 comments
115 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

33.3%chance
21.7% this week
18 comments
114 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

2.5%chance
39 comments
63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

77 comments
101 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
20 comments
70 forecasters

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

Current estimate
Dec 2041
8 comments
13 forecasters

How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?

6 comments
71 forecasters

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

1%chance
8 comments
132 forecasters

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

32%chance
13 comments
12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate
4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.