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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

Deny some entities87%

Deny ≤99 countries50%

Deny ≥100 countries10%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?

When will the first fully autonomous surgery or procedure be performed on a human?

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)