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Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

Deny some entities87%

Deny ≤99 countries50%

Deny ≥100 countries11%

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4

AI Progress Essay Contest