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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

11 Nov 2029

2 comments

83 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

3%chance

14% this week

3 comments

62 forecasters

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

48%chance

24% this week

39 comments

63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

18 comments

80 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

2%chance

Key Factors

8 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

13 comments

12 forecasters

What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?

Latest estimate

4.07B

This question is closed for forecasting.

7 comments

34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%

2 or 341.8%

4 or 510.6%

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?

13.5%chance

8.5% this week

60 comments

236 forecasters

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

64%chance