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Artificial Intelligence
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627
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
2
comments
115
forecasters
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
33.3%
chance
21.7%
this week
18
comments
114
forecasters
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
2.5%
chance
39
comments
63
forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
77
comments
101
forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
20
comments
70
forecasters
When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?
Current estimate
Dec 2041
8
comments
13
forecasters
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?
6
comments
71
forecasters
Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
1%
chance
8
comments
132
forecasters
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
32%
chance
13
comments
12
forecasters
What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024?
Latest estimate
4.07B
This question is closed for forecasting.
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