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CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

3

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singaporeresult: Yes

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra4.2%

OpenAI / GPT-53%

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

Key Factor

Risk of recession

Key Factor

Risk of recession

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

result07 Aug 2025 17:00

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)