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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

Deny some entities87%
Deny ≤99 countries50%
Deny ≥100 countries11%
and 4 others

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

75%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

20 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

203644%
203020%
20261%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

25 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

38%chance
17% this week

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.14
states

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest