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US Democracy Index

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What will be the total awarded grand-prize sum for XPRIZE Healthspan?

$052.4%

$61 million – 10 Year Functional Improvement18.8%

$71 million – 15 Year Functional Improvement14.9%

253 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

26%chance

Key Factors

374 comments

1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

3 comments

14 forecasters

What will be the number of drug overdose deaths in the United States in the following years?

2028111k

2026109k

5 comments

43 forecasters

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

70%chance

4% this week

5 comments

56 forecasters

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

1%chance

1 comment

47 forecasters

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

83%chance

3 comments

15 forecasters

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

Current estimate

07 Dec 2028

15 comments

47 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

Current estimate

44.4%

14 comments

27 forecasters

How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?

Current estimate

1.18 logMAR