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5
comments
44
forecasters
Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?
74%
chance
4%
this week
14
comments
3
forecasters
How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?
12
comments
69
forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
15%
chance
10%
this week
5
comments
55
forecasters
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?
1%
chance
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
1
comment
47
forecasters
Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
83%
chance
3
comments
15
forecasters
When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?
Current estimate
07 Dec 2028
19
comments
32
forecasters
What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?
Current estimate
708 cases
15
comments
47
forecasters
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
Current estimate
44.1%
48
comments
53
forecasters
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025?
Current estimate
1945 cases
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