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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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2 comments
4 forecasters

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor

Current estimate
>Jan 2034
5 comments
64 forecasters

Semaglutide Approval Withdrawal by 2027

0.5%chance
17 comments
67 forecasters

1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?

resultNo
11 comments
435 forecasters

Semaglutide Withdrawn in 2024?

resultNo
10 comments
10 forecasters

US births from women aged 50 and older

49 comments
238 forecasters

Naturally-originating pandemic before 2026

resultYes
18 comments
75 forecasters

Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?

resultNo
5 comments
49 forecasters

GLP-1-based drug approval by 2029

80%chance
4 comments
15 forecasters

Date Weight Loss Drug >25% Body Weight

Current estimate
14 Mar 2028
1 comment
54 forecasters

Oral Semaglutide Approval by 2027

82%chance
20 comments
73 forecasters

Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?

resultYes
27 comments
65 forecasters

Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?

resultYes
19 comments
53 forecasters

Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?

resultNo
24 comments
77 forecasters

Will the current (2018) Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?

resultNo
8 comments
36 forecasters

Tirzepatide Approval for Weight Loss by 2025

resultYes
11 comments
66 forecasters

Will the current (2018) Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?

resultNo
8 comments
15 forecasters

Semaglutide in top 300 US meds before 2032

resultYes
33 comments
38 forecasters

Will the current DRC Ebola outbreak end by February 2020?

Ambiguous
8 comments
27 forecasters

Date Weight Loss Drug >15% Body Weight

community
15 Mar 2024
result
08 Nov 2023 12:00 UTC
30 comments
48 forecasters

How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the ร‰quateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?

community
55.2
result
55
0 comments
29 forecasters

Semaglutide/Cagrilintide Approval by 2027

53%chance
26 comments
41 forecasters

Average US Measles Cases 2025 through 2030?

Current estimate
>1000 cases

Key Factors

  • Population Immunity - MMR Vaccination rates
41 comments
143 forecasters

WHO PHEIC Declaration On Monkeypox

resultYes
3 comments
61 forecasters

Death Rate From Infectious Disease