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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?

Combinedresult: 19.4 per 100k
Fluresult: 13.6 per 100k
COVID-19result: 4.2 per 100k
and 1 other

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

62%chance

How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025?

1704
cases

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

2%chance

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

77%chance

The Promise and Impact of the Next Generation of Weight Loss Drugs

19
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?

37%chance
13% this week

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?

resultNo

What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US?

Infants < 8 monthsresult: 44.7%
Adults 60+Annulled
Eligible pregnant personsresult: 38.5%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance