EvanHarper

Predictions30826

Comments2928

Member SinceJanuary 2016

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by EvanHarper

9 forecasters

Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?

resultYes

33 forecasters

Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?

1%chance

137 forecasters

Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?

resultNo

10 forecasters

When will at least 1% of global cement production be carbon-neutral?

Current estimate

Oct 2032

January 26, 2023 Virtual Metaculus Meetup

87 forecasters

Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?

Ambiguous

120 forecasters

Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?

resultNo

68 forecasters

[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

community

15

result

15

39 forecasters

Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?

resultYes

3 forecasters

How many wickets will Abrar Ahmed take by the end of the second test match in Multan?

community

11

result

11

42 forecasters

Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?

resultYes

13 forecasters

Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?

13%chance

20 forecasters

Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?

resultNo

70 forecasters

Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?

resultNo

9 forecasters

When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?

community

25 Jun 2023

result

24 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

23 forecasters

Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?

resultYes