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tetraspace
Predictions
2442
Comments
184
Member Since
August 2016
links
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Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by tetraspace
9 comments
11 forecasters
In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?
community
150k
result
36.947k
6 comments
13 forecasters
In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?
community
65.7
result
85
8 comments
20 forecasters
In the 2022 EA Giving Tuesday, what will be the amount of matched funds sent by Facebook as a percentage of the amount donated?
community
30
result
Ambiguous
7 comments
43 forecasters
Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??
result
No
2 comments
17 forecasters
How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?
community
18.8
result
24
9 comments
35 forecasters
How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?
community
17.6
result
15
9 comments
34 forecasters
How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?
community
185k
result
220.954k
16 comments
27 forecasters
How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
community
50.3M
result
64.128269M
32 comments
118 forecasters
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
result
Yes
23 comments
66 forecasters
When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
Current estimate
Apr 2032
4 comments
17 forecasters
How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?
Current estimate
5.96 species
10 comments
20 forecasters
[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
result
No
27 comments
135 forecasters
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
result
No
7 comments
26 forecasters
What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
Current estimate
0.841 ratio
49 comments
51 forecasters
How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?
community
29.1
result
30
52 comments
50 forecasters
What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?
community
2.09
result
0.8
3 comments
20 forecasters
How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?
Current estimate
113M DALYs
6 comments
26 forecasters
How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
Current estimate
4.42 billion tons
20 comments
53 forecasters
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?
result
Yes
6 comments
40 forecasters
What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?
community
45.8
result
More than 50
32 comments
66 forecasters
Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?
result
No
18 comments
62 forecasters
How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?
community
1
result
0
20 comments
110 forecasters
If the Republican candidate in 2020 wins the electoral college, will they lose the popular vote?
Ambiguous
3 comments
19 forecasters
What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?
Latest estimate
1.85 ratio
This question is closed for forecasting.
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