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tetraspace
Predictions
2442
Comments
184
Member Since
August 2016
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by tetraspace
9 comments
11 forecasters
In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?
community
150k
result
36.947k
6 comments
13 forecasters
In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?
community
65.7
result
85
8 comments
20 forecasters
In the 2022 EA Giving Tuesday, what will be the amount of matched funds sent by Facebook as a percentage of the amount donated?
community
30
result
Ambiguous
7 comments
43 forecasters
Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??
result
No
2 comments
17 forecasters
How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?
community
18.8
result
24
9 comments
35 forecasters
How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?
community
17.6
result
15
9 comments
34 forecasters
How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?
community
185k
result
220.954k
16 comments
27 forecasters
How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
community
50.3M
result
64.128269M
32 comments
118 forecasters
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
result
Yes
23 comments
67 forecasters
When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
Current estimate
Aug 2032
4 comments
17 forecasters
How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?
Current estimate
5.96 species
10 comments
20 forecasters
[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
result
No
27 comments
135 forecasters
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
result
No
7 comments
26 forecasters
What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
Current estimate
0.756 ratio
49 comments
51 forecasters
How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?
community
29.1
result
30
52 comments
50 forecasters
What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?
community
2.09
result
0.8
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