alexlyzhov

Predictions3139

Comments555

Member SinceAugust 2017

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by alexlyzhov

8 comments

8 forecasters

How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025?

Input (8K context)result: 0.03

Input (32K context)Annulled

Output (32K context)Annulled

750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokensresult: 0.0075

Output (8K context)result: 0.06

18 comments

273 forecasters

What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

community

1.92

result

2.021421

12 comments

50 forecasters

What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?

community

79.1

result

12 comments

30 forecasters

When will The Economist rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index?

Current estimate

Aug 2045

22 comments

80 forecasters

When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?

community

>01 Aug 2023 00:00

result

More than 01 Aug 2023 00:00

18 comments

27 forecasters

When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside?

Current estimate

26 Jun 2029

Key Factors

San Francisco likely early AR adopter
AR glasses are a new trend that is very likely to work for consumers

7 comments

46 forecasters

How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

4.7 states

11 comments

31 forecasters

When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?

community

>01 Feb 2022

result

More than 01 Feb 2022

9 comments

50 forecasters

When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?

Current estimate

Dec 2051

19 comments

21 forecasters

What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?

Current estimate

105M people

17 comments

31 forecasters

How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?

Current estimate

60.8 countries