Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
jzima
Predictions
3151
Comments
121
Member Since
August 2017
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by jzima
3 comments
13 forecasters
How large will the global market for perovskite solar cells be (in millions of dollars) in 2030?
Current estimate
1637 $M
26 comments
115 forecasters
When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?
Current estimate
18 Feb 2030
27 comments
65 forecasters
Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?
result
Yes
55 comments
446 forecasters
Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
4%
chance
17 comments
140 forecasters
When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?
Current estimate
Jul 2042
11 comments
66 forecasters
Will the current (2018) Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?
result
No
9 comments
89 forecasters
Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?
result
No
12 comments
172 forecasters
Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?
result
No
18 comments
75 forecasters
Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?
result
No
11 comments
48 forecasters
Will Bitcoin's energy consumption remain below 80 TWh/yr in 2018?
Ambiguous
37 comments
193 forecasters
Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?
14%
chance
10 comments
141 forecasters
Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?
result
No
45 comments
295 forecasters
Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?
result
No
74 comments
449 forecasters
Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?
97%
chance
53 comments
487 forecasters
Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?
2%
chance
Key Factors
Events changed my mind
10 comments
75 forecasters
Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?
22%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
38 comments
242 forecasters
Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?
57%
chance
3 comments
103 forecasters
Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?
result
No
55 comments
538 forecasters
Will Metaculus exist in 2030?
98%
chance
6 comments
86 forecasters
Model 3 spot production rate at end of 2018?
community
6517
result
4611
14 comments
74 forecasters
Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?
result
No
23 comments
82 forecasters
Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?
result
No
80 comments
455 forecasters
Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?
14%
chance
5 comments
165 forecasters
Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
40%
chance
Load More