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nagolinc
Predictions
568
Comments
317
Member Since
August 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by nagolinc
13 comments
37 forecasters
How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?
Current estimate
1662 $/kg
34 comments
151 forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
50%
chance
Key Factors
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?
17 comments
91 forecasters
When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
Current estimate
>3000
14 comments
114 forecasters
Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
15%
chance
7 comments
28 forecasters
What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
community
4.37
result
3.62
66 comments
308 forecasters
Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?
result
No
45 comments
105 forecasters
What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?
Current estimate
1806 B USD
102 comments
282 forecasters
Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?
result
Yes
32 comments
96 forecasters
Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?
result
Yes
2 comments
28 forecasters
What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?
community
62.7k
result
56.91757k
17 comments
18 forecasters
What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?
community
62.4k
result
Ambiguous
19 comments
63 forecasters
When will a technology replace screens?
Current estimate
Mar 2045
34 comments
77 forecasters
Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?
Current estimate
2.97
25 comments
75 forecasters
Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?
27%
chance
24 comments
144 forecasters
Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
result
No
30 comments
146 forecasters
Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
result
No
36 comments
190 forecasters
US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?
result
No
147 comments
464 forecasters
Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia?
result
No
58 comments
62 forecasters
When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?
Latest estimate
Jan 2035
This question is closed for forecasting.
8 comments
55 forecasters
Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?
80%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.