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jacob.pfau
Predictions
236
Comments
120
Member Since
September 2019
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by jacob.pfau
22
comments
28
forecasters
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
Current estimate
24 Jul 2026
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
3
forecasters
if yes
if no
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
2.34
Resolved:
Annulled
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
3.07
Resolved:
Annulled
2
2
2
comments
3
3
forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved:
Yes
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
19 Apr 2026
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
23 Nov 2025
Resolved:
Annulled
4
0
comments
6
6
forecasters
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Resolved:
Yes
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
5%
5%
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
40%
40%
Resolved:
Annulled
3
0
comments
24
24
forecasters
11
comments
143
forecasters
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
1.8%
chance
3
comments
18
forecasters
When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?
Current estimate
15 Dec 2026
3
comments
35
forecasters
In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?
73%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
15
comments
18
forecasters
How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?
Latest estimate
0.159
This question is closed for forecasting.
3
comments
80
forecasters
What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?
community
42.1
result
56.8
21
comments
40
forecasters
What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?
community
0.098
result
Ambiguous
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