NoUsernameSelected

Predictions5065

Comments361

Member SinceFebruary 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by NoUsernameSelected

7 comments

8 forecasters

When will the Metaculus Algorithm break its worst prediction record?

community

28 Jan 2023

result

15 Nov 2022 15:30 UTC

3 comments

11 forecasters

When will the Metaculus Community break its worst prediction record?

community

26 Jan 2023

result

15 Nov 2022 15:30 UTC

20 comments

30 forecasters

How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?

community

3.07

result

8 comments

35 forecasters

When will The Elder Scrolls VI be released?

Current estimate

>01 Jan 2028

9 comments

62 forecasters

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

5%chance

27 comments

87 forecasters

When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?

Current estimate

2088

23 comments

133 forecasters

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

7 comments

64 forecasters

When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?

Current estimate

Jul 2037

19 comments

52 forecasters

What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?

Current estimate

<10k people

28 comments

110 forecasters

When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?

Current estimate

Oct 2040

91 comments

2k forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

20%chance

Key Factors

Potential biosignatures on Mars found

25 comments

135 forecasters

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Current estimate

Nov 2034

Key Factors

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.