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evanbd
Predictions
1543
Comments
322
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by evanbd
3 comments
46 forecasters
Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?
result
No
10 comments
45 forecasters
Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?
result
No
8 comments
18 forecasters
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
25 comments
59 forecasters
How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?
community
5.94 spacecraft
result
6 spacecraft
17 comments
113 forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years?
11 comments
20 forecasters
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
community
1.05 failures
result
1 failures
15 comments
21 forecasters
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
15 comments
66 forecasters
Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?
result
No
20 comments
21 forecasters
How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?
community
24.4
result
23
12 comments
31 forecasters
Will BB(5) be known by 2040?
result
Yes
14 comments
64 forecasters
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
Current estimate
>01 Jan 2027
17 comments
29 forecasters
How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?
community
2439
result
2451
35 comments
56 forecasters
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?
community
178
result
178