MetaculusOutlooks
Predictions0
Comments14
Member SinceOctober 2020
4 comments
66 forecasters
Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
80%chance
1 comment
27 forecasters
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72%chance
1 comment
31 forecasters
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
37%chance
4 comments
58 forecasters
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%chance
1 comment
33 forecasters
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?
99%chance
3 comments
26 forecasters
If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?
26%chance
3 comments
73 forecasters
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?
45%chance