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MetaculusOutlooks
Predictions
0
Comments
14
Member Since
October 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by MetaculusOutlooks
Exploring Metaculus’s AI Track Record
20
10 comments
10
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
8 comments
8
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022
34
7 comments
7
Ukraine Conflict
Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
80%
chance
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72%
chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
37%
chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%
chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?
99%
chance
If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?
31%
chance
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?
45%
chance
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