ForkLeaf

Predictions755

Member SinceSeptember 2022

43 forecasters

30 forecasters

Current estimate

146 forecasters

Situation less favorable than Baghdad 2003
Trump commitment to full-scale war impacts chances
One-year timeline tight for force buildup in Tehran

7 forecasters

Current estimate

31 forecasters

6 forecasters

18 forecasters

402 forecasters

40 forecasters

Current estimate

His death or war end are main possibilities
Zelensky may not want to continue
Serving 10+ years affects democratic image

19 forecasters

397 forecasters

Current estimate

- Russian economic stability
Political stability
Resource deployment

73 forecasters

189 forecasters

Velyka Novosilka

Kostyantynivka

166 forecasters

56 forecasters

5 forecasters

Current estimate

ForkLeaf

Questions by ForkLeaf

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

When will a trip to Mars be available to the general public at a price less than the average American worker's annual salary?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

When will a country first introduce an antimatter weapon in its armed forces?

Do we live in a false vacuum?

What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years?

Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?

When will Volodymyr Zelensky cease to hold the office of President of Ukraine?

Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

When will the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft reach initial operating capability?

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

When will a trip to Mars be available to the general public at a price less than the average American worker's annual salary?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

When will a country first introduce an antimatter weapon in its armed forces?

Do we live in a false vacuum?

What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years?

Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?

When will Volodymyr Zelensky cease to hold the office of President of Ukraine?

Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

When will the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft reach initial operating capability?