RMD
Predictions8796
Comments824
Member SinceOctober 2022
Tournaments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2Rank: #3 out of 343
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4Rank: #1 out of 149
Forecasting Our World in DataRank: #1 out of 312
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2025Rank: #2 out of 3214
FluSight Challenge 2023/24Rank: #1 out of 27
π Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup πRank: #2 out of 756
Nuclear Risk TournamentRank: #6 out of 669
Ukraine ConflictRank: #38 out of 3902
Brazil Prediction Tournament - 1st QuarterRank: #3 out of 516
Global Pulse TournamentRank: #3 out of 314
Keep Virginia Safe II: Hospitalizations SeriesRank: #1 out of 44
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3Rank: #1 out of 156
Future PerfectRank: #14 out of 3064
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic RiskRank: #2 out of 68
Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026Rank: #135 out of 2866
ACX 2024 Prediction ContestRank: #32 out of 1340
Biosecurity Tournament Short-TermRank: #9 out of 277
Peer Accuracy
Baseline Accuracy
Question Writing