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Anthony
Predictions
795
Comments
3090
Member Since
September 2015
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Anthony
0 comments
A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule
18 comments
22 forecasters
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
Current estimate
30 Aug 2030
13 comments
46 forecasters
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Current estimate
8.5×10¹⁵ km
10 comments
18 forecasters
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
Current estimate
Mar 2046
20 comments
35 forecasters
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
community
>22 Dec 2025
result
18 Dec 2021 UTC
0 comments
Metaculus capabilities list (obsolete)
2 comments
Prediction microteaming discussion
4 comments
Metaculus Staffing News
6 comments
54 forecasters
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Ambiguous
88 comments
362 forecasters
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
result
No
7 comments
66 forecasters
Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?
result
No
77 comments
94 forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
Ambiguous
30 comments
90 forecasters
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
Current estimate
16 Oct 2027
3 comments
80 forecasters
Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?
result
No
17 comments
Cheery-pick your best predictions
15 comments
50 forecasters
When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?
Current estimate
Jul 2064
3 comments
Metaculus anecdotes
27 comments
Self-resolving question methods
0 comments
The pandemic lockdown series
20 comments
155 forecasters
Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?
result
No
10 comments
Wanted: pandemic project lead
16 comments
Announcing pandemic.metaculus.com
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?
68.5%
chance
370 comments
881 forecasters
Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?
Ambiguous
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