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Anthony
Predictions
795
Comments
3090
Member Since
September 2015
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Overview
Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Anthony
0 comments
A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule
18 comments
24 forecasters
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
13 comments
46 forecasters
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Current estimate
5.3×10¹⁵ km
10 comments
18 forecasters
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
Current estimate
Mar 2046
20 comments
35 forecasters
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
community
>22 Dec 2025
result
18 Dec 2021 UTC
0 comments
Metaculus capabilities list (obsolete)
2 comments
Prediction microteaming discussion
4 comments
Metaculus Staffing News
6 comments
54 forecasters
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Ambiguous
88 comments
362 forecasters
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
result
No
7 comments
66 forecasters
Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?
result
No
77 comments
94 forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
Ambiguous
30 comments
91 forecasters
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
Current estimate
08 Feb 2028
3 comments
80 forecasters
Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?
result
No
17 comments
Cheery-pick your best predictions
15 comments
50 forecasters
When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?
Current estimate
Jul 2064
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