98.158 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
92.222 | Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? | Binary |
87.718 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
87.345 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
83.920 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
83.609 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
75.963 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
64.198 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
57.276 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
56.871 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
52.618 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
52.310 | What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release? | Continuous |
52.131 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
51.904 | Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
51.478 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
49.077 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
48.723 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
37.083 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
36.221 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
29.643 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
25.693 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.113 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
19.498 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
17.452 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
11.578 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.657 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
6.133 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
4.577 | How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located? | Continuous |
2.933 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.790 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
- | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-6.242 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-7.398 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-11.927 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
-22.493 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |