97.549 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
96.723 | When will the second Starship test flight occur? | Continuous |
95.376 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
95.169 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
84.230 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
83.199 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
81.374 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
81.157 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
76.709 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
74.574 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
70.953 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
70.002 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
63.332 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Binary |
55.437 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
49.958 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
49.512 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
49.269 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
49.192 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
46.483 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
45.651 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
43.247 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
41.390 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
41.309 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
39.228 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
38.699 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
36.268 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
35.555 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
35.243 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
33.366 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
32.139 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
31.919 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
28.392 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
24.656 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
20.192 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
16.407 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
15.524 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
15.304 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.453 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden) | Binary |
13.244 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
11.054 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England) | Binary |
8.125 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia) | Binary |
6.916 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
6.686 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
6.155 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France) | Binary |
4.523 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
3.892 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
3.732 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
1.963 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
1.409 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-2.629 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
-3.517 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
-6.185 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
-9.853 | Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
-16.864 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-22.302 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
-68.107 | When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT? | Continuous |
-81.612 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |