157.489 | How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
143.545 | When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin? | Continuous |
114.935 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped) | Continuous |
99.715 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
99.421 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita) | Binary |
98.020 | When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end? | Continuous |
96.957 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
96.652 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) | Binary |
96.476 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
96.377 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba) | Binary |
95.502 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | Binary |
95.482 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
94.416 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner) | Binary |
94.416 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel) | Binary |
94.415 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas) | Binary |
94.415 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos) | Binary |
94.125 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić) | Binary |
94.104 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
93.806 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
93.558 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
92.871 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
89.563 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
89.419 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
85.152 | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Binary |
82.961 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
81.296 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
79.884 | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Binary |
79.767 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
79.113 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
78.272 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
77.386 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
76.905 | What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19) | Continuous |
75.894 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
74.245 | US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
74.045 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023? | Binary |
71.650 | When will the second Starship test flight occur? | Continuous |
69.907 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
64.238 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
63.745 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
62.940 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
59.934 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
59.546 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
59.017 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
57.640 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
55.776 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
55.723 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
55.411 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
52.180 | How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy? | Continuous |
49.889 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
49.845 | What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2) | Continuous |
48.441 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
44.066 | Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024? | Binary |
39.629 | What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
37.997 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
37.101 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
37.100 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R)) | Binary |
37.100 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
37.100 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
37.099 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
37.099 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
37.099 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
37.099 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
37.099 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
36.613 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
36.261 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor) | Continuous |
35.544 | How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate? | Continuous |
35.455 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
35.196 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
34.161 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
33.905 | ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023? | Binary |
32.342 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
29.856 | What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final? | Continuous |
28.071 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
27.679 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
27.241 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
26.027 | Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate? | Continuous |
22.322 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R)) | Binary |
22.061 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
21.111 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
20.728 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
20.628 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R)) | Binary |
20.477 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
17.482 | What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff? | Continuous |
17.386 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.448 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
13.853 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
12.807 | When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT? | Continuous |
12.675 | How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023? | Continuous |
11.978 | What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023? | Continuous |
10.480 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
4.726 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.920 | Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.448 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
2.209 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023? | Continuous |
1.778 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
1.665 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
-1.540 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
-5.193 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | Binary |
-5.862 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
-11.163 | When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives? | Continuous |
-12.231 | What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections? | Continuous |
-17.258 | Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024? | Binary |
-17.980 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-28.618 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Binary |
-31.660 | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | Binary |
-31.907 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
-37.188 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-46.543 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González) | Binary |
-54.364 | Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín) | Binary |
-78.940 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
-135.219 | Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-206.855 | What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election? | Continuous |