pagouy

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.081	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.960	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
50.153	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
41.609	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
26.189	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.585	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
20.089	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
15.599	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
15.358	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
12.325	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
10.223	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.580	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
7.853	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
7.669	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
7.520	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
7.479	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
7.314	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.419	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.904	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
5.720	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.154	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
4.942	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
3.729	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.959	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
2.397	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.860	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
1.781	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
1.517	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.411	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.810	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.779	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
0.715	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.657	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.322	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
-0.685	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-2.206	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.409	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-4.585	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.066	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
-6.704	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
-10.460	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-19.469	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-19.615	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-29.271	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary