ethereal_apparel

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.206	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
69.678	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
45.515	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.142	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.739	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
18.601	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.411	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.628	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.562	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
14.978	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
13.834	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
12.364	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.123	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.405	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
10.221	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.136	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.573	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
6.625	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
6.125	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.254	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
5.040	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.015	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
4.471	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
4.299	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.076	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.014	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
2.293	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.134	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
0.905	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
0.873	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.346	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
0.174	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
0.136	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.119	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.013	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-3.474	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.203	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
-11.970	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-28.924	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary