waebi

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.577	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
58.394	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
42.631	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
30.680	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
30.239	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.361	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
25.579	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
24.265	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
21.364	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.463	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
19.009	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.759	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
15.947	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
15.764	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
10.944	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
9.987	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
9.858	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
9.470	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.827	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
7.717	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.685	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
5.696	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.657	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.541	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.807	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.112	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.824	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.361	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
0.799	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.790	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.643	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
0.294	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.065	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.032	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
0.025	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
-0.239	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
-0.549	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-0.615	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.690	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-5.458	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.255	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-11.560	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-21.008	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
-25.193	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-30.628	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary