51.656 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
45.355 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
44.024 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
39.374 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
34.962 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
33.729 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
32.267 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
31.281 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
30.557 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
28.546 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
23.512 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
20.381 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
19.568 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
18.736 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
18.536 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
16.359 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
12.671 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
11.963 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
11.227 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
11.063 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
10.022 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
9.466 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
9.402 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
9.104 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
8.162 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
8.159 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
7.701 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
7.171 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
7.155 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
6.969 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
5.992 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
4.276 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
3.773 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
3.677 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
3.350 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
3.275 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
3.225 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
3.163 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
2.821 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
2.679 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.575 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
0.830 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
0.817 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
0.616 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
0.599 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
0.282 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
-1.320 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
-1.603 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-1.729 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-3.838 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
-6.603 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
-8.456 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
-18.997 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
-21.230 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
-24.702 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-33.569 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-38.959 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
-40.167 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-42.258 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
-62.203 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-78.521 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |