gumbo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.765	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
64.212	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
45.710	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
45.346	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
36.729	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
34.496	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
32.318	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.841	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
26.671	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
25.195	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
24.095	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.751	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
20.644	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
17.026	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
16.618	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.259	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.745	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.950	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.445	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
11.246	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.794	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.520	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
10.108	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
9.268	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.073	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
8.891	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
8.237	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
7.966	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
7.605	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
7.552	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
7.527	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
7.412	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.799	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.451	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.330	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
6.260	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
6.068	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
5.983	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
5.955	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
5.509	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
4.979	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.927	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
4.213	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.791	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
3.714	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
3.226	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
2.916	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.870	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.559	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
2.525	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
1.968	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
1.904	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.898	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.805	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
1.436	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.380	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.307	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.235	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
1.171	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.171	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.909	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.078	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.018	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-0.224	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
-0.236	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.490	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-2.473	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-2.639	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.537	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-7.745	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.700	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary