wd28

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.066	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.373	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
62.025	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
50.870	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
39.986	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
30.613	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
25.602	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.279	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.871	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.947	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.749	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
14.650	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.641	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
13.996	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
13.409	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
13.103	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
12.972	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
12.029	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.696	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
7.956	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.666	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
7.223	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.484	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
6.440	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.989	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
5.894	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.800	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
5.558	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.443	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.226	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.223	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
5.049	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
4.949	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.811	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
4.685	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.422	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
3.969	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.352	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
3.043	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.723	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.598	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.511	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
1.386	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
1.099	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.069	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
0.999	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
0.885	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
0.432	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
0.293	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
0.271	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
0.257	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
0.192	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.011	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
-0.397	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
-3.071	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-43.743	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
-53.812	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary