andrmoe

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.92	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
60.331	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
48.185	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
40.217	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
35.797	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
34.943	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
25.531	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
24.913	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
24.646	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
23.274	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.527	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
19.326	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
19.021	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
18.645	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.462	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.863	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
14.665	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
13.659	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
12.413	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.123	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.101	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.888	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
11.710	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
11.544	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.076	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.046	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.868	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.872	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
8.177	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.321	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.472	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.381	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.017	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.442	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
5.205	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
4.554	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
4.450	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.352	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
4.325	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.203	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.989	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.896	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.067	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.052	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.562	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
2.205	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
2.095	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.448	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.187	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.381	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-13.201	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-35.603	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
-44.613	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary