jimrandomh

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

3.149k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.958	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
96.673	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
91.335	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
88.114	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
87.122	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
84.711	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
84.478	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
84.290	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
83.012	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
82.810	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
81.312	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
80.151	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
78.837	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
76.523	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
76.456	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
76.289	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
75.528	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
74.323	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
73.736	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
73.620	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
71.624	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
67.798	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
67.781	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
67.677	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
67.441	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
65.785	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
65.379	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
62.017	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
61.728	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
61.654	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
60.163	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
58.450	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
58.444	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
58.306	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
57.333	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
57.055	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
56.222	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
53.706	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
53.003	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
52.584	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
51.013	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
48.732	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
48.514	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
48.465	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
48.253	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
47.770	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
47.496	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
47.347	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
47.347	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
47.306	Airships by 2019?	Binary
45.951	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
44.270	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
41.703	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
40.018	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
39.010	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
38.568	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
37.843	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
37.582	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
37.351	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
37.197	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
36.503	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
36.442	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
34.346	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
34.061	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
33.207	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
29.496	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
27.749	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
26.298	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
26.294	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
26.274	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
26.262	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
26.228	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
26.068	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
25.959	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
25.766	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
25.527	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
24.825	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
22.447	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
21.374	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
20.192	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
18.638	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
13.750	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
13.696	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
13.562	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
13.491	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
13.479	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
13.156	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
12.713	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
12.358	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
10.881	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
8.439	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
8.194	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
4.833	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
-3.890	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-5.740	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-14.377	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-14.826	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
-14.836	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
-14.954	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
-14.961	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
-15.052	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
-15.095	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-15.167	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-15.177	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-15.194	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-26.943	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-28.522	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-28.696	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-31.075	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-31.974	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-32.163	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-47.226	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-47.338	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-48.265	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-50.645	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-51.191	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-86.205	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-89.987	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-228.984	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-327.445	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary