llamaquack1

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

546	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.666	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
76.234	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
60.817	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
53.497	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
47.344	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
41.906	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
39.841	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
32.839	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
31.384	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
31.384	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
25.899	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
20.892	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
19.174	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
19.133	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
15.736	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
15.585	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
15.037	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
14.286	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
13.741	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
13.029	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
10.453	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
5.464	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
2.856	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
2.760	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
2.465	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
1.642	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
0.725	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
0.499	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
0.439	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
0.330	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.266	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
0.213	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.071	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
0.021	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-0.938	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-1.203	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-2.808	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-2.847	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-7.950	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-11.616	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-11.710	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-19.486	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-97.087	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary