James

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.38k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.278	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
99.087	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
89.224	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
88.108	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
85.680	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
82.173	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
80.477	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
78.611	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
76.054	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
75.668	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
75.377	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
74.991	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
74.554	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
71.651	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
69.828	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
69.249	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
66.838	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
65.209	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
64.830	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
63.729	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
58.239	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
57.760	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
57.571	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
56.628	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
56.021	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
53.038	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
51.566	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
48.274	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
48.101	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
44.597	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
43.118	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
42.497	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
40.909	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
39.746	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
38.977	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
38.685	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
38.331	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
37.747	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
34.499	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
34.481	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
34.446	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
33.929	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
33.404	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
33.184	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
32.697	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
31.722	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
31.181	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
30.840	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
28.103	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
22.956	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
22.060	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
21.227	Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?	Binary
20.595	What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?	Continuous
16.759	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
16.676	When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team?	Continuous
12.532	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
12.045	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
11.518	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
8.923	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
6.607	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
5.597	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
5.132	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
3.806	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
-	Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?	Binary
-	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
-6.966	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
-8.222	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
-15.133	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-29.351	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-39.671	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary
-49.470	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-54.385	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-56.845	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-66.739	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
-99.825	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-186.475	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary