Jgalt

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3734	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
137.131	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
131.315	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
112.303	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
98.906	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
98.727	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
98.590	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
98.423	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
98.242	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
96.153	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
95.336	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
94.521	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
94.358	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
94.154	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
93.640	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
92.395	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
90.752	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
90.674	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
90.499	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
89.791	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
89.535	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.138	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
88.805	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
88.798	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
88.731	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
88.716	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
88.310	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
87.878	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
87.170	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
86.196	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
85.394	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
84.831	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
83.110	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
82.392	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
81.857	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
80.930	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
80.307	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
80.242	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
80.078	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
79.969	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
79.920	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
79.565	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
78.607	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
78.112	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
76.616	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
76.538	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
76.226	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
74.348	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
72.489	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
71.583	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
71.015	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
70.869	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
70.473	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
68.954	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
67.997	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
67.216	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
66.422	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
65.864	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
65.238	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
64.817	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
64.489	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
63.832	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
62.560	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
61.649	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
61.569	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
61.075	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
60.653	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
59.723	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
59.552	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
59.116	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
58.463	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
58.115	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
57.713	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
57.342	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
57.236	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
57.169	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
56.998	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
56.707	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
56.648	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
55.841	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
55.688	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
55.340	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
55.312	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
55.224	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
54.878	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
54.386	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
53.329	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
52.856	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
52.830	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
51.917	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
51.721	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
51.514	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
51.385	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
50.585	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
50.400	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
49.760	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
49.556	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
49.164	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
47.949	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
46.856	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
46.765	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
46.442	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
46.374	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
46.025	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
44.792	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
44.542	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
44.296	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
43.819	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
43.795	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
41.692	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
39.291	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
38.918	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
38.874	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
38.673	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
38.417	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
37.950	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
37.826	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
37.172	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
36.937	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
35.250	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
35.105	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
34.829	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
33.821	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
33.153	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
32.519	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
32.407	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
32.061	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
32.024	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
31.784	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
31.509	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
31.244	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
30.859	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
30.036	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
28.770	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
28.768	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
28.632	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
28.319	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
27.175	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
26.816	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
26.440	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
25.866	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
25.652	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
25.260	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
24.966	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
24.222	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
23.873	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
23.855	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
23.060	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
22.551	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
22.477	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
21.317	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
20.205	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
19.704	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
19.558	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
18.885	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
17.891	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
16.155	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
15.766	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
15.426	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
15.391	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
15.248	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
14.462	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
14.393	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
13.858	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
13.491	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
13.147	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
10.753	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
10.276	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
9.700	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
7.988	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
7.634	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
7.373	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
6.965	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
6.209	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
5.555	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
3.700	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
3.591	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
3.543	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
3.225	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
2.485	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
2.179	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
2.017	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
1.386	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
1.204	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.297	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
0.196	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-0.053	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-0.568	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.906	Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?	Binary
-1.452	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-2.408	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-2.776	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
-4.032	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-5.303	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-6.980	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
-7.229	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-7.397	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-7.570	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-7.685	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-7.839	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
-9.384	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-9.503	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-9.886	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-10.576	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-14.141	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-16.048	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
-21.487	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
-24.178	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-25.896	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
-27.517	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-28.176	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-28.549	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-29.156	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
-31.533	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-34.949	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-35.133	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-36.146	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
-36.418	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
-37.348	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
-40.841	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-42.062	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-42.830	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-43.604	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-44.573	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-49.236	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-51.330	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-52.453	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-55.373	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
-58.200	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-61.510	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-62.950	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-64.543	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-80.797	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-85.067	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
-86.957	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-90.102	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-90.494	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
-92.345	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-101.844	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
-108.505	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-117.707	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-118.836	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-123.235	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
-153.737	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-156.055	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-191.211	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-200.217	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-213.481	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-215.371	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-215.758	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-228.943	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-328.079	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-328.654	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
-503.078	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
-552.642	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary