SpazCadet

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

711.1	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.987	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
82.271	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
82.034	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
81.105	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
80.326	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
61.951	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
58.636	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
57.872	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
56.014	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
49.539	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
47.890	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
46.266	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
46.236	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
46.165	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
46.146	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
44.829	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
40.870	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
37.533	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
37.188	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
36.372	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
33.664	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
33.198	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
29.365	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
26.016	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
25.963	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
22.863	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
22.663	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
21.000	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
14.791	Airships by 2019?	Binary
14.777	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
13.652	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
11.958	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
10.282	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
9.762	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
7.231	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
6.036	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
5.710	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
5.299	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
0.718	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
0.237	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
-	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.040	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
-0.963	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-0.987	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-1.543	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
-4.812	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
-5.482	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
-5.804	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-5.847	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-9.243	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
-11.672	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-13.294	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-27.699	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-35.642	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-52.733	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-81.197	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-83.589	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-113.773	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-133.712	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-146.301	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous