durbanus

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.086k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.819	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
75.489	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
73.519	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
72.656	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
68.220	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
68.067	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
67.738	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
62.959	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
59.130	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
58.393	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
57.038	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
53.856	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
47.536	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
47.520	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
41.833	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
36.749	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
32.561	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
32.549	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
29.742	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
26.276	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
22.937	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
17.734	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
16.127	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
11.828	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
9.280	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
9.181	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
8.441	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
7.192	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
6.391	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
6.094	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
4.285	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
2.703	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
2.226	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
0.622	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
0.278	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-40.835	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-106.457	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary