Rogozjin

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.78k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.993	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
97.189	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
92.541	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
92.392	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
92.206	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
92.067	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
89.802	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
89.018	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
88.709	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
83.512	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
83.493	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
79.794	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
74.842	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
72.962	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
71.254	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
67.327	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
66.409	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
66.295	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
63.946	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
62.326	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
57.415	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
54.118	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
50.428	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
50.047	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
44.045	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
42.472	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
38.412	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
37.613	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
37.324	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
35.988	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
32.582	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
31.767	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
21.271	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
19.443	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
17.874	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
17.236	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
16.684	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
15.921	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
11.017	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
8.424	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
7.937	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
7.852	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
6.291	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
5.049	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
4.986	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
4.579	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
1.237	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
1.129	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
0.365	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.236	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
0.056	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
0.020	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
0.008	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-0.020	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.144	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-6.156	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-14.809	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-16.603	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-16.715	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-22.684	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-118.807	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-328.191	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary