cpt

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.255k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.125	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
71.185	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
68.405	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
63.582	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
61.107	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
59.016	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
57.637	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
56.426	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
54.473	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
48.471	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
48.170	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
48.028	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
47.351	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
47.182	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
45.436	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
40.473	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
40.074	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
36.227	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
34.183	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
31.368	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
30.433	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
30.160	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
29.056	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
28.655	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
28.442	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
26.025	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
26.011	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
23.558	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
22.669	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
22.350	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
21.982	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
18.716	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
18.294	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
15.495	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
15.271	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
15.191	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
15.094	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
14.115	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
13.175	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
12.468	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
12.434	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
11.894	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
10.602	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
10.553	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
9.459	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
9.046	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.614	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
7.543	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
7.512	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
7.204	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
6.970	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
6.369	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
6.034	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
5.477	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
4.913	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
4.591	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
3.972	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
3.062	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
1.828	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.663	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
1.524	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
0.501	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
0.439	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
0.260	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
-	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-0.190	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-1.333	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-1.785	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-2.760	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-8.355	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-11.605	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-13.979	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-21.025	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-36.695	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-53.271	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-81.758	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-117.311	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary