oubus

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.091k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
79.403	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
76.274	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
75.373	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
67.255	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
65.811	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
65.280	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
59.555	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
57.517	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
57.332	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
55.032	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
47.493	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
45.386	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
43.070	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
41.364	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
39.722	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
35.767	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
30.906	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
28.362	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
25.909	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
25.826	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
21.777	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
21.590	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
19.874	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
17.607	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
12.818	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
11.109	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
6.232	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
5.843	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
5.256	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
3.000	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
2.116	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
1.641	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
1.538	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
1.504	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
1.115	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
0.912	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
0.000	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-0.870	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-4.570	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-16.814	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-42.995	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary