mattvdm

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3731	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
138.931	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
131.866	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
124.387	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
110.316	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
97.924	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
97.857	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
94.963	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
93.787	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
90.569	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
83.694	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
82.565	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
81.365	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
80.346	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
80.121	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
77.742	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
76.769	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
76.387	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
74.939	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
72.522	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
70.556	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
68.828	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
68.167	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
66.038	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
65.956	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
65.484	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
65.474	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
65.117	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
64.125	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
63.593	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
62.250	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
61.325	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
60.366	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
60.127	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
58.929	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
58.646	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
56.449	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
55.938	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
54.140	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
53.968	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
53.943	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
52.939	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
52.548	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
50.273	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
48.718	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
48.668	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
48.571	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
45.814	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
45.746	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
43.156	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
43.137	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
43.076	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
40.991	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
40.522	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
39.971	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
39.839	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
38.904	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
37.089	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
35.748	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
35.489	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
35.239	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
34.427	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
34.423	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
33.575	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
33.117	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
32.948	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
32.674	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
32.466	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
29.721	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
29.295	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
27.126	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
26.910	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
25.195	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
25.117	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
22.292	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
21.964	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
17.997	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
16.954	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
16.901	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.839	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
16.450	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
15.492	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
15.201	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
15.139	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
13.509	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
13.469	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
13.273	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
13.155	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
12.177	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
11.934	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
11.498	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
11.200	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
10.946	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
10.800	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
10.733	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
9.985	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
8.841	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
8.447	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
8.417	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
8.057	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
7.883	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
7.302	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
6.091	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
5.278	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
3.106	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
3.065	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
2.273	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
1.089	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
0.677	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
0.415	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.412	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
0.111	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
0.060	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
-0.530	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-0.597	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-1.480	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-2.730	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
-3.110	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-4.007	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-6.994	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-13.768	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-14.859	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-21.223	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-28.069	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-28.243	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-28.921	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-46.662	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-52.948	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-67.062	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-70.282	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-106.039	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-121.656	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-152.659	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-216.956	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous