79.782 | When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI? | Continuous |
59.725 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | Binary |
41.843 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M? | Binary |
37.627 | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | Binary |
29.401 | When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States? | Continuous |
26.576 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | Binary |
22.242 | How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020? | Continuous |
20.262 | Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law? | Binary |
18.459 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | Binary |
11.038 | How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election? | Continuous |
10.737 | Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020? | Binary |
9.654 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started? | Binary |
9.213 | How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020? | Continuous |
5.902 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | Binary |
4.808 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | Binary |
3.980 | Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021? | Binary |
3.243 | Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States? | Binary |
1.921 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | Binary |
1.480 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | Binary |
1.150 | Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022? | Binary |
0.988 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | Binary |
- | Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary? | Binary |
-1.711 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | Binary |
-5.474 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | Binary |
-6.267 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | Binary |
-8.643 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | Binary |
-15.031 | How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be? | Continuous |
-16.340 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | Binary |
-21.191 | Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020? | Binary |