galen

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5178	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
149.268	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
139.807	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
133.819	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
129.708	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
107.576	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
98.225	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
97.667	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
96.095	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
86.749	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
85.744	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
82.957	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
80.905	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
79.724	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
76.199	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
76.048	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
75.098	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
74.662	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
74.024	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
73.057	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
71.618	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
71.475	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
70.627	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
68.961	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
68.322	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
67.053	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
66.005	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
65.171	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
64.269	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
64.026	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
63.969	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
63.747	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
63.303	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
62.879	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
61.004	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
60.949	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
59.326	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
58.722	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
58.114	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
57.810	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
57.698	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
56.621	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
56.502	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.666	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
53.611	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
52.870	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
52.850	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
52.791	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
52.282	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
52.166	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
51.555	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
51.018	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
50.923	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
47.056	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
45.802	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
45.431	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
45.341	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
45.188	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
45.099	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
42.854	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
42.836	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
42.539	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
42.082	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
41.639	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
41.567	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
41.536	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
41.488	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
41.254	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
40.702	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
40.424	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
40.315	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
40.247	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
40.148	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
39.864	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
39.853	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
39.640	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
38.939	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
38.215	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
37.105	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
37.092	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
36.532	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
36.057	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
35.725	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
34.916	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
34.178	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
34.023	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
33.847	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
32.421	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
31.495	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
31.409	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
31.346	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
30.665	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
29.358	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
29.339	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
28.464	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
28.220	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
27.798	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
27.661	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
27.545	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
27.288	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
26.653	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
25.821	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
25.808	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
25.769	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
25.683	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
25.523	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
24.845	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
24.781	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
24.471	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
24.155	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
23.261	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
23.018	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
23.018	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
22.184	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
22.132	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
19.869	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
18.457	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
18.349	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
17.208	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
16.844	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
16.831	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
15.170	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
15.131	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
15.001	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
14.859	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
14.774	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
14.727	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
13.838	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
13.534	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
13.231	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
12.853	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
12.591	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
11.649	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
11.305	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
11.253	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
11.140	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
10.926	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
9.302	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
9.256	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
8.249	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
7.847	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
7.522	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
7.263	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
7.239	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
6.569	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
6.290	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
5.967	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
5.351	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
5.077	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.632	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
4.356	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
4.292	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
3.817	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
3.627	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
3.298	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
2.859	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
2.670	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
2.666	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.402	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
2.094	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
1.857	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
1.567	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
1.169	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
0.109	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
0.096	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.047	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-0.546	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-0.618	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-0.846	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-0.886	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.341	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-6.448	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-6.929	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-7.163	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-7.758	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-8.960	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-9.214	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-11.288	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-12.337	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-13.579	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-14.970	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-15.510	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-16.296	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-18.120	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-20.108	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-29.077	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-30.362	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-31.150	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-31.212	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-50.509	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-50.930	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-129.543	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-135.157	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-164.082	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-179.309	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-182.343	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous