Vang

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6418	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
159.288	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
151.622	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
136.408	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
126.254	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
121.362	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
115.612	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
104.654	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
98.702	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
95.987	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
95.592	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
93.844	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
92.444	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
92.115	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
91.942	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
90.170	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
87.825	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
87.767	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
87.378	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
86.871	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
85.793	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
85.684	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
84.943	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
84.601	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
83.864	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
80.826	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
80.422	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
80.146	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
78.754	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
77.016	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
76.641	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
76.144	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
75.764	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
75.144	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
73.740	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
72.005	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
70.709	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
70.233	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
70.204	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
69.791	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
69.492	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
69.167	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
68.976	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
68.083	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
67.823	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
67.487	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
66.886	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
66.283	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
63.748	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
63.366	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
62.664	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
62.149	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
61.668	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
61.536	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
61.432	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
60.865	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
60.644	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
60.245	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
59.309	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
58.531	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
58.127	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
56.505	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
54.942	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
54.731	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
54.430	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
54.103	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
52.588	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
52.305	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
50.853	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
50.427	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
50.162	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
50.096	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
50.065	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
49.099	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
49.079	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
48.631	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
48.623	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
48.614	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
48.351	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
47.928	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
47.884	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
47.841	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
47.146	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
47.118	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
46.731	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
46.621	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
45.131	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
44.339	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
43.669	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
43.434	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
43.203	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
43.055	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
42.850	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
42.835	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
42.685	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
42.537	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
41.488	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
40.986	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
40.558	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
40.088	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
39.947	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
39.057	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
39.030	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
38.587	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
35.213	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
34.512	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
33.790	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
32.636	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
31.490	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
31.189	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
31.140	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
30.351	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
29.520	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
29.196	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
29.069	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
28.812	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
27.522	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
25.687	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
25.619	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
24.183	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
24.151	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
24.080	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
23.299	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
23.199	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
22.608	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
22.190	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
21.993	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
20.161	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
19.357	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
19.084	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
18.723	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
17.361	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
16.792	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.622	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
16.011	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
14.961	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
14.688	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
14.184	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
13.811	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
12.076	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
12.005	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
11.800	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
11.772	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
11.450	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
10.419	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
10.365	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
10.339	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
9.942	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
9.917	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
9.858	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
9.607	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
9.592	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
9.289	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
8.835	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
8.331	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
8.328	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
7.895	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
7.553	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
7.387	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
6.286	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
5.912	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
5.489	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
5.292	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
5.138	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
5.077	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
4.806	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
4.531	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
3.620	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
3.420	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
3.132	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
2.679	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
2.033	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
1.962	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
0.598	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
0.070	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
-2.939	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-3.811	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-4.541	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-6.187	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-7.931	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-8.082	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-8.873	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
-9.241	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-9.552	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-10.949	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-12.503	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-15.513	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-17.973	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-18.395	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-19.163	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-21.151	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-23.688	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-31.618	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-32.897	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-34.516	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-38.654	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-43.465	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-46.896	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-55.779	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-77.127	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-123.016	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-151.048	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-157.948	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-181.980	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-197.673	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-224.243	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous