SimonM

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

6230	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
185.667	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
166.132	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
157.574	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
113.299	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
112.056	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
103.727	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
98.126	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
97.680	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
96.430	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
95.624	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
93.569	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
91.258	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
89.973	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
87.420	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
85.300	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
84.622	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
84.219	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
83.772	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
83.236	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
83.000	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
82.104	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
82.015	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
78.906	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
75.168	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
75.044	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
75.002	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
74.852	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
74.850	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
74.516	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
74.097	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
74.049	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
73.689	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
73.485	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
73.039	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
72.970	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
71.161	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
70.977	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
70.649	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
69.715	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
68.511	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
68.251	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.966	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
67.809	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
67.577	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
67.325	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
67.208	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
66.709	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
66.056	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
65.485	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
65.014	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
64.610	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
64.487	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
62.071	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
61.531	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
61.390	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
60.272	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
60.120	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
58.940	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
58.675	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
58.641	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
58.518	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
58.293	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
57.807	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
57.536	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
56.790	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
56.289	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
56.131	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
54.224	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
53.546	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
52.132	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
51.670	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
50.925	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
50.892	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
50.729	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
49.787	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
48.543	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
47.213	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
47.053	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
46.832	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
45.634	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
44.996	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
44.295	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
43.860	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
43.791	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
41.692	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
41.416	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
41.079	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
40.965	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
40.701	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
39.990	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
39.745	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
37.989	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
37.447	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
37.084	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
36.842	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
35.602	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
35.594	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
33.887	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
32.935	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
32.448	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
32.155	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
30.977	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
30.736	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
29.789	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
29.639	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
27.613	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
27.142	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
27.022	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
26.584	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
26.463	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
25.433	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
23.475	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
22.985	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
21.705	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
21.249	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
20.755	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
19.627	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
18.921	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
18.386	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
18.087	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
17.985	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
17.383	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
17.175	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.467	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
16.389	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
15.708	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
15.645	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
15.341	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
15.224	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
14.803	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
13.119	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
12.241	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
11.758	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
11.361	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
11.195	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
10.723	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
8.909	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
8.839	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
7.512	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
7.225	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
6.761	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
6.008	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
5.682	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
5.045	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
3.771	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
2.558	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
2.117	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.910	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
0.868	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.659	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
0.271	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
0.160	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
-0.082	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-1.501	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-2.983	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-7.562	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-8.397	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-8.536	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-10.245	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-10.493	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-10.914	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-16.221	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-18.112	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-18.874	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-20.643	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-22.648	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-24.563	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-25.086	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-29.358	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-34.317	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-43.047	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-44.262	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-47.152	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-48.151	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-54.961	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-63.098	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-76.512	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-132.334	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-133.499	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-149.719	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-195.552	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous